Poll predicts heavy losses for Sussex Conservative MPs at general election

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced on Wednesday, May 22, that the date for the general election is Thursday, July 4.

Earlier this year, The Telegraph commissioned a YouGov survey of 14,000 people, which forecast the Tories would retain just 169 seats with Labour sweeping to power with 385 – giving Sir Keir Starmer a 120-seat majority.

Among the Sussex Conservatives predicted to lose their seats were Chichester MP and Secretary of State for Education Gillian Keegan, and Father of the House Sir Peter Bottomley, who represents Worthing West and who was first elected in 1975.

At least 11 Cabinet ministers would lose seats, including Chancellor Jeremy Hunt. Mr Hunt's constituency, South West Surrey, would be lost to the Liberal Democrats, the poll suggests.

Writing for The Telegraph, Conservative peer Lord Frost described the poll’s findings as ‘stunningly awful’ for the party, adding it was facing ‘1997-style wipeout – if we are lucky’.

He said in the The Telegraph that a combination of tactical voting and any decision by Nigel Farage to return to front-line politics could leave the Conservatives facing ‘an extinction event’. Lord Frost added that the only way to avoid the likely defeat was ‘to be as tough as it takes on immigration, reverse the debilitating increases in tax, end the renewables tax on energy costs – and much more’.

These are the predictions for Sussex constituencies based on the poll’s findings: Chichester, Eastbourne, Horsham and Lewes – Lib Dem gain from Conservatives; Crawley, East Worthing & Shoreham, Hastings & Rye and Worthing West – Labour gain from Conservatives; Labour to hold Hove & Portslade and Brighton Kemp Town & Peacehaven; Greens to hold Brighton Pavilion; Conservatives to hold Arundel & South Downs, Bexhill & Battle, Bognor Regis & Littlehampton, East Grinstead & Uckfield, Mid Sussex and Sussex Weald.

A boundary review, designed to even out the number of people each MP represents, will see some Sussex residents being a different constituency – or a brand-new one – for the next general election.

Among the changes are: Arundel & South Downs gaining Midhurst and surrounding villages from Chichester; minor changes in Brighton & Hove and Peacehaven with seats being renamed; the creation of the East Grinstead & Uckfield seat, bringing together part of the Wealden constituency and parts of Lewes, Mid Sussex and Horsham; Mid Sussex loses East Grinstead to the new seat but gains Hassocks, Hurstpierpoint and Fulking from Arundel & South Downs and the creation of the Sussex Weald seat, taking the east of the old Wealden constituency and parts of Bexhill & Battle, including Heathfield.